Solar power forecasts

With our solar power forecasting system Suncast we precisely predict the generation of solar power plants worldwide with a total capacity of over 250 GW – ranging from individual plants to the entire installed photovoltaic capacity of a country.

Access to real-time solar generation data enables us to offer as well estimations of current solar power production for many regions worldwide.

We deliver our solar energy forecasts and solar generation data customized to your needs and are always available for you with personal contacts and our 24/7 on-call service. Our intuitive web-based customer portal streamlines data management and monitoring, offering you comfortable access to your measurement and forecast data. Easily personalize your dashboards to display key insights in the way that suits you best.

Are you interested in our solar power forecasts and other energy forecasts?

Please contact us: Tel. +49 441 249 210 or mail@energymeteo.de

Flyer: Forecasts and Nowcasts

Solar power forecasting system

Suncast: Accurate solar generation forecasts

Our expertise centers on delivering precise solar power forecasts tailored for stakeholders across the energy sector. Using our advanced Suncast forecasting system, we provide accurate solar power forecasts for global locations, control zones and grid nodes. By optimizing a blend of weather models, we produce forecasts ranging from 5 minutes to 15 days, featuring high temporal resolution, real-time adjustment to measurements and delivery on your schedule.

This enables electricity traders and system operators to integrate variable solar power into their workflows efficiently – both economically and technically.

How we create solar power forecasts

To ensure precise solar power forecasts, Suncast leverages numerical data from top weather services, utilizing the unique strengths of each model. Our advanced forecasting system optimally integrates various weather models, prioritizing the prediction with the lowest error for each specific weather condition. Plant outages (due to e.g. maintenance, grid or market-driven curtailments) are also taken into account.

Alongside the forecast values, Suncast assesses situation-dependent uncertainty since the forecast accuracy can vary with changing weather conditions.

Extreme weather conditions and operational shutdowns

Our solar power forecasts are continuously developed and optimized to deliver reliable results even under difficult weather conditions such as snow, fog and convection. Factors that influence electricity production are considered as well, such as shutdowns by the solar plant operator. Market curtailments and curtailments by grid operators are also incorporated into our models to ensure the most accurate possible representation of actual generation.

Curtailment forecast

Consideration of grid and market-driven curtailments

Our forecasts follow a modular approach and offer the option of adding power components as required. A key component is our capability to forecast curtailments by grid operators in the event of grid bottlenecks in the control area. We therefore always provide you with two versions of our wind forecasts:

• Forecast of real feed-in: This variant considers all power-reducing curtailments caused by measures of the grid operators, technical restrictions (outages due to maintenance or plant defects) and scheduled unavailability
• Forecast of technically possible feed-in: All technical and scheduled unavailabilities are considered here, but no market-related or grid-related curtailments.

We use the measures published by distribution and transmission system operators to validate the curtailment forecast. The curtailment forecasts are possible at different levels - for individual wind farms, portfolios or for the entire electricity market.

Meta forecast

Optimal combination of different power forecasts

We can flexibly combine our solar forecasting model with the predictions of other providers to achieve the best possible accuracy and reliability. For this meta-prediction, we determine the optimal weighting of the forecasting models based on their historical performance. The weighting factors can be adjusted both automatically and manually.

With the short-term correction, our meta forecast reacts dynamically to weather-related changes, ensuring a high forecast quality even in complex weather situations. Our meta-forecast also offers above-average precision for long-term forecasts beyond four days.

Situational Awareness Reports

Meteorological forecasts

Our meteorological forecasts and supplementary situational awareness reports help grid operators and power traders to prepare for extreme weather events at an early stage.

Especially in critical situations such as storms, icing and thunderstorms, which can significantly affect the power generation of wind farms, our warning reports provide in real-time fast and reliable information. This gives you comprehensive insights and allows you to react to volatile weather situations at an early stage.

Our customer portal

Visualization of your forecast and measurement data

With our user-friendly customer portal, you can flexibly visualize forecast and measurement time series and compile them on individually configurable dashboards. You can choose from various display options such as graphs, gauge displays, maps and scatter diagrams and freely select historical data periods to quickly obtain a convenient overview.

All displayed data can be easily exported and downloaded. The extensive functions make our portal a powerful tool for detailed data analysis and reporting.