ORKA

ORKA – Optimization of Very-short-term Ensemble Forecasts of Renewable Power Production applied to Grid Security Calculations as an Example Application

Up to now, wind and solar power forecasts have been primarily utilized for energy trading by grid operators to fullfil their obligations under the German Renewable Energy Act, and by power brokers involved in direct marketing. Increasingly, however, these forecasts are becoming necessary to guarantee grid stability on multiple voltage levels and thus must be further optimized for such tasks. In order to operate power grids for weather dependent wind and solar power plants in a foresighted and secure manner, locally precise, high-resolution weather forecasts must play an important role.

Precise Weather Forecasts for High-resolution Power Predictions

Within the framework of the project supported by the German Ministry for the Environment, short-term power forecasts for local grid nodes are to be improved. To this end, energy & meteo systems is working in close cooperation with the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) along with the grid operators 50hertz Transmission (transmission grid) as well as Avacon and TEN Thüringer Energienetze (distribution grid) so that changes in model forecasts by the DWD COSMO-DE model can be directly transformed into power predictions and evaluated as such. Furthermore, the DWD ensemble forecast system COSMO-DE-EPS is to be further developed and integrated into the grid security calculation for the estimation of prediction uncertainty.