Improvement of the Forecasting System for Solar and Wind Energy in Thailand

On behalf of the Thai-German Climate Programme, energy & meteo systems advised the Thai energy regulatory authority ERC and the state energy supplier EGAT on the improvement of a forecasting system for wind and solar power. And with good reason, because Thailand plans to increase the share of renewable energies from today's 12% to 37%. Wind and especially solar energy will play a key role in this, with installed capacity expected to triple to 15 GW in this period. However, as the weight of weather-dependent generation technologies increases, so does the relevance of reliable and precise power forecasts for the stability of the energy system.

The focus of the project was to advise ERC on various forecasting concepts. energy & meteo systems presented in detail the advantages and disadvantages of decentralised (by plant operators) and centralised provision (by the grid operator) of wind and solar power forecasts. The extent to which regulatory framework conditions can favour a good forecast quality was also part of the consulting approach. On the basis of specially prepared country studies on Germany, South Africa and India, ERC and EGAT were also able to gain international experience with various forecasting models. Since energy & meteo systems delivers power forecasts to these markets, valuable practical experience was also incorporated.

A further focus of the consulting project was photovoltaic roof plants, the installation of which is specifically promoted by the Thai government. energy & meteo systems therefore also presented options for projection of current solar power generation and for performance forecasts for this plant segment.